Using AI and Systems Science to Understand Multi-Hazard Impacts and Tourism Resilience in Aotearoa New Zealand
Published in the Centre for Sustainability, University of Otago Newsletter Winter 25
Ngā Ngaru Wakapuke (NNW) – Building Resilience to Future Earthquake Sequences in the Central Transition Zone – supports a three-year Postdoctoral Fellowship at the Centre for Sustainability. Dr Lucia Danzi joined the NNW team in March 2025, working across two research aims. The first is called RA1 “The Future” and the second RA2 “The Forecast.” Lucia brings an interdisciplinary background in disaster risk and resilience, with a particular focus on the tourism sector. She completed her PhD at the University of Otago in November 2024, where she explored collaborative networks between tourism and emergency management organisations.
In her postdoctoral research, Lucia is using Large Language Models (LLMs) to systematically examine the literature on multi-hazard events and their short, medium, and long-term impacts in Aotearoa New Zealand. The goal is to identify critical knowledge gaps and develop a causal loop model that maps the interconnections between these gaps. This will inform the research direction of the Ngā Ngaru Wakapuke programme and provide clarity on what we know, what remains uncertain, and where we need to focus our future efforts.
Later in her Postdoc, Lucia will also develop a tourism business dynamics model to explore how businesses in earthquake-prone regions adapt their behaviour and resilience strategies in response to prolonged earthquake sequences. Her work draws on real-world case studies such as the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, where widespread disruption to transport and essential services left over 1,200 tourists stranded and local businesses struggling for months.
With tourism contributing $13 billion in direct value-added and accounting for 3.7% of New Zealand’s GDP in the year ending March 2023, the stakes are high. The Transition Zone of central Aotearoa – home to key visitor destinations like Wellington, Marlborough, Nelson, and Kaikōura – is particularly exposed to seismic risk. Strengthening the resilience of this sector is critical as visitor numbers rise amid escalating climate-driven weather events and the high likelihood of major earthquakes like the Alpine Fault occurring in our lifetime.
Lucia’s research contributes to scenario co-design and improvements in socio-economic modelling, helping us better understand how disruptions might unfold and how the tourism industry can prepare for and adapt to complex disaster events. We are excited to see how her work will support NNW’s broader mission of building resilience to future earthquake sequences.
Image from Emergency Management Southland