Ngā Ngaru Wakapuke

Building resilienceto future earthquakesequences

Central Aotearoa-NZ occupies an area known as the Transition Zone, where our largest plate boundary faults: the Hikurangi Subduction Zone and the Alpine Fault converge.

Ngā Ngaru Wakapuke aims to deepen our understanding of Transition Zone earthquake behaviour to accurately forecast the economic, societal, and environmental hazards posed by large earthquake sequences.

Our research will also transform our approaches to Disaster Risk Reduction to mitigate the major consequences posed by earthquake sequences through partnering with communities, iwi, business, infrastructure providers and government to drive preparedness action that increases resilience.

Our programme name Ngā Ngaru Wakapuke builds on the 1894 waiata ‘I Te Rā o Maehe’, reflecting the waves on Raukawakawa Moana (Cook Strait) and how the movement of the landscape beneath creates waves that impact the land and people of Aotearoa.

The name was gifted to the research team by Kurt Komene-Smith, Leader Ngā Uki o te Mounga with support from highly respected tōhunga Kura Moeahu (Te Ātiawa).

Building resilience to future earthquake sequences

Our programme name Ngā Ngaru Wakapuke builds on the 1894 waitata ‘I Te Rā o Maehe’, reflecting the waves on Raukawakawa Moana (Cook Strait) and how the movement of the landscape beneath creates waves that impact the land and people of Aotearoa.

The name was gifted to the research team by Kurt Komene-Smith, Leader Ngā Uki o te Mounga with support from highly respected tohunga Kura Moeahu (Te Ātiawa).

The Future

Transform Aotearoa-NZ’s resilience to future earthquake sequences by co-designing culturally responsive, community-led scenario narratives that weave together our new science and local knowledge, to inform resilience initiatives.

The Forecast

Develop innovative tools for quantifying time-varying hazard, risk and socio-economic consequences caused by earthquake sequences utilising state-of-the-art physics-based computer simulations. These tools will enable our primary hypothesis to be tested, underpin earthquake sequence scenario narratives and facilitate stress-testing of end-user resilience business cases.

The Past

Determine the pattern and frequency of past large earthquake sequences with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution, using novel paleo-earthquake records from lakes that extend up to 10,000 years into the past, to provide direct input to our timedependent hazard models and test of earthquake simulations.

The Foundations

Revolutionise our understanding of Transition Zone 3D fault architecture using novel geological and geophysical data that parameterises our earthquake simulations and hazard models.

Our People

Programme Leaders

  • Caroline Orchiston — Otago University
  • Jamie Howarth — Victoria University
  • Kim King — Victoria University

The Future
  • Kelvin Tapuke, Co-lead — Massey University
  • Anna Brown, Co-lead — Massey University
  • Caroline Orchiston — Otago University
  • Marion Tan — Massey University
  • David Johnston — Massey University
  • Hinemoa Katene — Massey University
  • Tim Parkin — Massey University
  • Alice Lake-Hammond — AF8 Programme
  • Roger Fairclough — Neof Leaf Global
  • Lucia Danzi — University of Otago

The Forecast
  • Andy Nicol, Co-lead — University of Canterbury
  • Garry McDonald, Co-lead — Market Economics
  • Camilla Penney, Co-lead — University of Canterbury
  • Nicky McDonald — Market Economics
  • Juan Monge — Market Economics
  • Stefania Mattea — Market Economics
  • Tom Robinson — University of Canterbury
  • Conrad Zorn — University of Auckland
  • Jamie Gurney — University of Canterbury

The Past
  • Kate Clark, Co-lead — GNS Science
  • Sean Fitzsimons, Co-lead — University of Otago
  • Jamie Howarth — Victoria University of Wellington
  • Andy Howell — University of Canterbury
  • Adelaine Moody — Victoria University of Wellington

The Foundations
  • Dan Bassett, Co-lead — GNS Science
  • Emily Warren-Smith, Co-lead — GNS Science
  • Dan Barker — GNS Science
  • Brook Tozer — GNS Science
  • Phil Barnes — NIWA
  • Gareth Crutchley — NIWA
  • Susi Woelz — NIWA
  • Carolyn Boulton — Victoria University of Wellington
  • Katie Jacobs — GNS Science
  • Calum Chamberlain — Victoria University of Wellington
  • John Townend — Victoria University of Wellington